Tuesday 16 August 2016

Fun with extrapolation: Trea Turner, future MVP?

This dude can really triple your pleasure.

Steven recently noted Trea Turner's hot streak with the Nationals. Turner has not just been good for the Nats, he's been putting up MVP numbers. It's a small sample size so far (123 plate appearances), and he'll surely hit a slump at some point, but the chart below shows what Turner's numbers would look like if he maintained his current production for a 162-game season*.

PA

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

WAR

701

120

211

34

29

17

80

68

9.1

A 9.1 WAR would've been third among position players last year, trailing only teammate Bryce Harper (9.9) and Mike Trout (9.4). That's some pretty select company. A 9.1 WAR would've led all major leaguers in 2014 and 2010. Anything over eight typically puts a player in the MVP discussion, and of course Turner is posting these numbers from the premium defensive positions of second base and centerfield.

Turner's extrapolated total of 120 runs would've placed him first or second in MLB in each of the last four seasons. Ditto with the 211 hits. Seventeen homers and 80 RBI would be exceptional for a leadoff hitter, but it's the triple and stolen base numbers that really stand out. Turner's taken bags would've led or tied for the lead in MLB in eight of the last nine seasons. The triples? You'd have to go back to 1912 and Chief Wilson's 36 to find a player with more than Turner's projected total in a full season. Only two major leaguers have hit 20 or more since 2000.

Turner is probably not this good, but if he comes even close to this level of production in the future, he's going to be a perennial all-star and, with apologies to Dan Plesac, the best MLB player to have formerly plied his trade as a member of the Pack Nine.

*A leadoff hitter would be expected to total about 700 plate appearances if he played every day.


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