Blame Canada? Part Deux

Time-consuming research in easily digestible tables!

We looked at NC State's football program using fancy metrics recently, and those numbers seemed to support the eyes' conclusion that the offense was a relative strength for the team, especially the running game, and that if any head should've rolled after the disappointing 7-6 season, it should be the one on the shoulders of defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable. But Matt Canada, the OC, was jettisoned instead.

I, for one, am excited about the hire of Eli Drinkwitz due to his reputation as a great recruiter and his track record of success (albeit a brief one) with unproven quarterbacks. (And because, duh, I am an alcoholic, and he has drink IN HIS NAME.) However, given the Pack's solid performance on offense under his predecessor and the team's tougher schedule in 2016, Drinkwitz, awesome name notwithstanding, is stepping into a somewhat untenable situation. He better do a really good job or there is going to be a lot of second guessing.

In fairness to the powers that be, let's imagine for a moment that those aforementioned fancy metrics are deeply flawed. Perhaps more traditional stats will paint a different picture regarding the relative success of NC State's offensive and defensive units. Let's look at the good old rock-ribbed standards of points per game and yards per play to see if they may shed some light on the situation. Below are tables depicting how many points State allowed vs. how many point its opponents averaged in all games not against State. Additionally, the table shows how many yards per play State allowed compared to how many its opponents averaged against everyone else. The second table shows the same from the perspective of the Pack offense.

Opponent	PPG Not State	Points Vs. State	YPP Not State	YPP Vs. State
Troy	28.5	21 (+7.5)	5.3	6.6 (-1.3)
Eastern Kentucky	33.3	0 (+33.3)#	5.2	2.5 (+2.7)#
Old Dominion	25.5	14 (+11.5)	5.5	3.4 (+2.1)#
South Alabama	26.1	13 (+13.1)	5.3	4.2 (+1.1)
Louisville	29.4	20 (+9.4)	6.2	4.3 (+1.9)#
Virginia Tech	31.3	28 (+3.3)	5.3	5.5 (-0.2)
Wake Forest	17.5	17 (+0.5)	4.9	4.3 (+0.6)
Clemson	37.0	56 (-19.0)	6.3	7.8 (-1.5)*
Boston College	18.0	8 (+10.0)	4.4	4.0 (+0.4)
Florida State	31.5	34 (-2.5)	6.5	6.5 (±0.0)
Syracuse	27.1	29 (-1.9)	5.1	5.5 (-0.4)
North Carolina	40.4	45 (-4.6)	7.3	7.7 (-0.4)
Mississippi State	33.0	51 (-18.0)	6.4	7.4 (-1.0)
Totals		+42.6 (3.3 pg)		+0.3
Totals vs. P5		-22.8 (-2.5 pg)		-0.1

*highest output of the season

#lowest output of the season (though EKU was shutout twice)

Dave Huxtable's unit held three opponents to their lowest YPP output of the season and started the year with a streak of seven straight games of holding opponents under their scoring average. The only real ugly spot for the defense over the first half of the season was allowing Troy a ridiculously high YPP mark, but even with that black eye Huxtable's unit held the Trojans under their scoring average. Then Clemson happened. Despite not having any appreciable attrition due to injury or moped incidents, the defense collapsed in game eight and was only good once thereafter (against the barely even football-like substance they call offense at BC) and was at best average in any other game. At worst, there was UNC and Mississippi State. Against power five schools in sum, Huxtable's unit allowed nearly a field goal more per game than average and 0.1 yards more per play. Five of the last six opponents bettered their scoring average against the Pack, including the last four straight. Ultimately, given the extraordinary weakness of the OOC schedule, you could safely say State played defense well exactly once against a decent or better opponent this past season, that instance being in its game against Louisville.

One might argue that the defense was a little unlucky on top of just not being particularly good. State was 90^th in red zone conversions allowed; 87% of drives into the red zone resulted in points. That is largely a product of poor defense as a whole, but one more shanked field goal here or timely turnover there would certainly shade the scenery in a better light. State was certainly unlucky in the bounce department, recovering only 31% of opponent fumbles, which rated 118^th in all the land. Cut out a few of the quick sixes that plagued the unit, get a little better in the red zone, have that fumble luck even out, and it would not be hard to see the defense get appreciably better in year four under Hux, but there is just nothing in the numbers above or in his résumé pre-NC State to suggest that this is the guy you want running your defense.

So what about the offense?

Opponent	PPG Allowed (NS)	Pts Allowed State	YPP Allowed (NS)	YPP Allowed State
Troy	26.0	49 (+23)*	5.2	5.4 (+0.2)
Eastern Kentucky	23.6	35 (+11.4)	4.4	5.7 (+1.3)
Old Dominion	35.5	38 (+2.5)	5.7	5.5 (-0.2)
South Alabama	34.9	63 (+28.1)*	5.8	8.6 (+2.8)*
Louisville	25.0	13 (-12)^	4.9	3.9 (-1.0)
Virginia Tech	27.4	13 (-14.4)	5.7	4.2 (-1.5)
Wake Forest	23.6	35 (+11.4)$	5.4	7.3 (+1.9)$
Clemson	18.4	41 (+22.6)*	4.6	5.7 (+1.1)
Boston College	14.5	24 (+9.5)	3.8	5.9 (+2.1)
Florida State	17.5	17 (-0.5)	4.8	3.7 (-1.1)
Syracuse	30.0	42 (+12.0)	6.2	6.3 (+0.1)
North Carolina	23.8	34 (+10.2)**	5.5	5.8 (+0.3)
Mississippi State	22.8	28 (+5.2)	5.3	5.4 (+0.1)
Totals		+109 (+8.4)		+0.5
Totals vs. P5		+44 (+4.9)		+0.2

*highest output of the season (until the Alabama game in Clemson's case)

**most allowed in regular season (then Clemson and Baylor happened)

^fewest points allowed to FBS squad

$second most points and ypp allowed

Any way you slice it, the offense far outpaced the defense in 2015.  Canada's unit scored the most points Clemson and UNC allowed in any regular season game. Troy and South Alabama are trash, but his unit also hung season highs in points allowed on them. State did the second most damage against a solid Wake defense. The Pack were over two yards per play better than average against a BC defense that ranked 3^rd and 5^th nationally in the Football Outsiders' metrics. State was 10^th in red zone TD%, so perhaps the unit was due for a little regression next year, but maybe that is just good scheming near the goal line. Regardless, there is nothing in the numbers above that scream "Fire me!" And State's woeful placekicking game robbed the offense of more than a few points.

Interestingly, Huxtable's (arguably lone) bright spot came against Louisville. Unfortunately, that fine defensive effort coincided with State's two-game suck streak on offense. But Canada lost his power back a couple of days before the game with the Cards, and Blacksburg on a Friday night is no easy task even though the Hokies have fallen to mediocrity in Frank Beamer's twilight. Canada's inability to find success during that two-game slide certainly derailed any hopes of a special season, but, to his credit, he did get the offense going eventually without Shadrach Thornton, and the team continued to succeed when #ncstateshit poached Matt Dayes for the year. Huxtable, in contrast, underwhelmed without losing his two top players. I'd argue that Thornton and Dayes were two of the four most important players on offense, along with the JB the QB and Jaylen Samuels. Canada lost half of his most essential guys and still kept on churning out points.

Yes, getting Jay-Sam all of four touches in the bowl game is inexcusable. Indeed, David Grinnage faded into the witness protection program. Individual play calls left one head scratching on occassion. However, in the big picture (using fancy numbers or more traditional ones) this remains a coaching transaction that goes against the numbers.

I am available, and will work exceedingly on the cheap, if Dr. Yow and Dave Doeren would like to hire me to help them make data-drive decisions in the future.

http://ift.tt/1ZnyaK0