ACC Bubble Watch: Surprise Starts from Clemson, Virginia Tech Don't Impress Computers

Let's take an early look at the dance card because salt goes best with wounds.

Alas, barring a complete reversal of fortunes that involves, oh, winning 6 of the next 7 games or so, NC State "bubble watch" features are just not going to be a thing this season. But what about the league as a whole? Clemson and Virginia Tech are off to surprising starts in league play, but it hasn't impressed the computers enough to make either appear to be so much as even on the bubble. Despite a combined 9-2 ACC start, the Tigers are nearly 50 spots south of Easy Street and the Hokies are in the same neighborhood as the Pack in terms of RPI. Even if they can sustain their early league success€--a definite maybe in Clemson's case and a real longshot in Va. Tech's case--both programs might be on the outside looking in on selection Sunday. Could an 11-7 or even 12-6 Tech squad get left out Seth Greenberg style? Odds are we probably will never know.

What do we know about the ACC's dancing prospects as we near the third-way point of league play? Well, as I am wont to do, I have included a handy and utterly depressing table. Oh god I just looked at the bottom of the table again. MY EYES! MY EYES ARE ON FIRE!

Team	ACC Record	Overall	RPI	Vs. Top 100	Road Record
North Carolina	5-0	16-2	5th	9-1	2-2
Clemson	5-1	12-6	88th	5-4	1-3
Pittsburgh	4-1	15-2	22nd	5-2	1-1
Virginia Tech	4-1	12-6	107th	3-4	2-1
Louisville	3-1	14-3	25th	2-3	1-3
Notre Dame	3-2	12-5	39th	5-5	3-1
Duke	3-3	14-5	*19th	6-5	2-1
Miami	2-2	13-3	17th	6-3	2-2
Syracuse	3-4	13-7	*70th	5-5	2-4
Virginia	2-3	13-4	11th	7-4	1-4
Florida State	2-3	12-5	49th	3-5	2-3
Georgia Tech	1-4	11-7	60th	5-6	1-4
Wake Forest	1-4	10-7	72nd	4-6	3-2
Boston College	0-4	7-10	207th	0-8	0-3
NC State	0-5	10-8	112th	2-8	2-3

*before Cuse won in Durham Monday night

So, as the table indicates, there are seven programs lounging on the proverbial Easy Street (RPI of 39 or better), though one is definitely just renting at this point. Those impending sanctions are clearly holding back the Heels (<--sarcasm font). UNC is the clear class of the league to date; CAR-olina is unbeaten in league play and sports an impressive 9-1 mark against the top 100. Virginia has looked sluggish, like a wet sponge, to open ACC play, and the new emphasis on freedom of movement cannot help their mug-n-thug D, but with an RPI of 11^th there is little doubt that the Wahoos will be making their annual early exit from the tournament again in March. Duke has not looked like DUKE! this year, but even a below average K team is tournament bound. The same is true of Pitino's bunch; the Cards are 25^th despite playing an ACC-low five top-100 opponents (and losing to three of them). Do computers also like hookers?

Pittsburgh, NC State's next opponent, can make a claim as the league's second best team behind the Royboys. Miami is just .500 in the league but top 20 in RPI. Notre Dame's Easy Street real estate claim is the most tenuous at 39^th in the RPI, but all five of the Irish's losses are against top 50 RPI teams (yes, even Monmouth). The Irish beat Iowa and Duke away from home and are one of the few teams not sucking away from home. They're in if the season ended today.

The locks are easy. The bubble is where things get complicated. From RPI alone, it would appear there are but two bubble teams (40^th-60^th in RPI) in Florida State (49^th) and Georgia Tech (60^th). FSU has a win at Florida and over Virginia at home. Marquee wins, check. The Noles lack a loss to a team outside of the top 100, but five of their wins come against teams well outside the top 200. There's work to do here.

Kudos to Brian Gregory for his hot-seat scheduling. No one in the league has played more top 100 teams than the not-so-Yellowjackets, and Tech has held its own at 5-6. But that 1-4 start to ACC play and 11-7 overall mark spells doom. Ditto Wake Forest, a team that looked like solid bubble material before the reality of ACC rigors set in. Danny Manning has taken on Arkansas, Indiana, LSU, UCLA, Vanderbilt, and Xavier--€”and gone 4-2 in those games. Some of those "name schools" are better in name than play (like UCLA), but, nonetheless, these are cap feathers for Manning on selection Sunday...or would be if the team hadn't collapsed out of the gate in league play.

But what about the aforementioned juggernauts, Clemson and Virginia Tech. I suppose IF they keep winning the RPI will take care of itself. And the Tigers have only themselves to blame for their current predicament given their scheduling. Clemson's BEST non-conference win is Wofford, a team that ranks 204^th in RPI. If, mercifully, the season did end today, how could you not pick the second place team from the ACC? A team that's only conference loss is to the first-place team?

The Hokies may have a better argument. Hey, they do have a non-conference win against a top-100 team, 99^th in the RPI UAB! But Virginia Tech's largest margin of victory in its four ACC wins was its five-point overtime triumph over your NC State Wolfpack. The Hokies have actually been outscored in league play despite the nice start in the W-L column. The luck is going to run out.

Syracuse is on the outside looking in as of this second but should find itself in the bubble conversation thanks to a win at Duke tonight. They also beat Texas A&M, a team in the running for a one or two seed come March. Jim Boeheim has taken his finger out of his nose long enough to pilot his crew to three straight wins.

There are two other teams we will not analyze in order to spare the innocent.

Bottom line, the ACC looks like a lock for seven entrants on selection Sunday with three additional teams showing promise in FSU, Clemson, and Syracuse. The Techs and Wake still at least have a glimmer of hope, which is progress for their moribund programs. It could be a banner year for the ACC, if not for NC State.

http://ift.tt/1QbfLO7